000
WTPZ41 KNHC 141435
TCDEP1

Hurricane Max Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162017
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Max continues to have a well-defined eye in radar imagery from
Acapulco, Mexico, even though the eye that was observed in earlier
infrared satellite imagery has become obscured.  Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB are up to T4.0/65 kt, but given the
hurricane's structure as seen in radar data, the initial intensity
is set slightly higher at 70 kt.

Radar animations indicate that Max's eye has been moving just north
of due east, and the initial motion is estimated to be 085/5 kt.
Max is located to the north of a mid-level ridge extending
southwest of Guatemala, and the flow around this ridge should force
the hurricane to move eastward or east-northeastward across the
coast of Guerrero or Oaxaca by this evening or tonight.  After
landfall, Max should move farther inland over southern Mexico.

With sea surface temperatures near 30 degrees Celsius and relatively
low shear, the environment appears conducive for further
strengthening before Max reaches the coast.  The new NHC forecast
closely follows the SHIPS and LGEM statistical-dynamical guidance
and shows a little more intensification during the next 12 hours
than was indicated in the previous advisory.  Max will weaken
quickly after landfall, and is expected to dissipate over the
mountainous terrain of southern Mexico by 36 hours.

Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat from Max.
Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated amounts of
20 inches, are expected over the Mexican states of Guerrero and
Oaxaca, and life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are
possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 16.3N  99.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 16.5N  99.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 16.9N  98.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 36H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg