000
WTPZ41 KNHC 132032
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162017
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Visible imagery during the day indicate that the cloud pattern has
improved in organization and consists of a well-defined cyclonically
curved convective band.  This band wraps around an area of deep
convection where the center is located.  T-numbers from both TAFB
and SAB agree that the cyclone is now a tropical storm with 35 kt
winds.  A portion of the circulation is already interacting with
land, so no significant strengthening is forecast before the center
moves inland.  The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm
warning for a portion of the coast.

The depression is located at the bottom of a large mid-latitude
trough, and this pattern will carry the depression slowly east-
northeastward toward the coast of Mexico, and then farther inland.
Most of the global models dissipate Max once it moves over the high
terrain, and the NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to dissipate
in about 48 hour or sooner.

The main threat from Max will be torrential rains over portions of
southwestern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 16.1N 101.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 16.5N 100.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 16.8N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 17.0N  97.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila