000
WTPZ41 KNHC 120235
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017
900 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Convection associated with the low pressure area located well south
of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized this
afternoon and evening, with recent microwave images showing a
well-defined curved band wrapping around the western portion of the
circulation.  Based on the improvement in organization, the system
is being classified as a tropical depression. The initial wind speed
is set to 30 kt, which is a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates
of 25 and 35 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively.

The depression is currently in an environment of light northeasterly
shear and over warm sea surface temperatures. Although the global
models do not show significant deepening, the statistical guidance
(SHIPS and LGEM) and regional hurricane models (HWRF and CTCX)
predict steady strengthening, with the regional models making the
system a major hurricane by the end of the forecast period.  Given
the low shear and warm waters ahead, the NHC forecast calls for
steady intensification and lies close to HCCA consensus model.

The depression is moving westward at about 10 kt.  A large mid- to
upper-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone is forecast
to build westward over the next several days.  This should keep the
cyclone on a general westward heading throughout the five-day
forecast period.  The models are in good agreement on the steering
pattern and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 12.2N 109.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 12.2N 111.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 12.2N 113.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 12.3N 115.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 12.4N 117.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 12.5N 121.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 12.5N 127.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 12.5N 132.8W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown