000
WTPZ41 KNHC 110238
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Depression Adrian Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017
1000 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017
 
Strong southeasterly vertical wind shear has completely decoupled
the mid-/upper-level circulation from the low-level circulation,
with those two features now being separated by more than 250 nmi.
Moreover, there has been no deep convection within 100 nmi of the
exposed low-level circulation for more than 9 hours, and outflow
boundaries have been noted moving southward and eastward toward the
low-level circulation center over the past few hours. The associated
stable air behind those boundaries will likely prevent regeneration
of any central deep convection in the near term, resulting in Adrian
becoming a remnant low by early Thursday. After 48 hours, the
various dynamical and statistical models are in significant
disagreement on possible regeneration. The GFS, UKMET, CMC, SHIPS,
and LGEM models are indicating regeneration into a significant
tropical cyclone by 48 hours and beyond, whereas the ECMWF, HWRF,
and Navy COAMPS models show Adrian remaining a shallow remnant low
for the next 5 days. Given that environmental conditions are
expected to be favorable with SSTs greater than 30C, a moist
mid-level environment, and fairly low shear, the official intensity
forecast is a middle-of-the-road blend between these two extremes.
However, complete dissipation of this system is a very distinct
possibility some time during the forecast period.
 
The initial motion estimate is 305/04 kt.  Adrian is expected to
move slowly west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 24 to
48 hours. The shallow system is forecast to turn more westward by 72
hours and beyond, possibly even stalling and making erratic motion
due to the expected collapse of the steering currents as the
deep-layer ridge over Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico breaks down. The
new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies
a little south of the TVCN consensus model, closer to the ECMWF
solution.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 10.5N  93.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 11.1N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  12/0000Z 11.7N  94.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  12/1200Z 12.1N  95.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  13/0000Z 12.4N  96.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 12.4N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  15/0000Z 12.4N  97.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  16/0000Z 12.4N  97.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart