000
WTPZ41 KNHC 141431
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212016
800 AM MST MON NOV 14 2016

Satellite images indicate that Tina is weakening.  Deep convection
has decreased during the past several hours and is now confined to
a narrow curved band about 90 n mi northeast of the center.  The
Dvorak classifications have lowered, and support reducing the
initial intensity to 30 kt.  Very strong southwesterly shear of
nearly 40 kt and dry air will continue to affect the cyclone during
the next couple of days, which should cause additional weakening.
The system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low in 12 to 24
hours and will likely dissipate in a couple of days or less.

The depression is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt. A turn to the
west in the low-level easterly flow is expected later today as the
cyclone loses convection and becomes vertically shallow.  The NHC
track forecast is a tad north of the previous one, based mainly on
the initial position, and lies near the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 19.0N 108.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 19.1N 109.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 19.1N 110.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/0000Z 19.1N 111.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi