000
WTPZ41 KNHC 142047
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
200 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2016

The satellite signature of Orlene continues to slowly decay, with a
small area of cold convection remaining near a cloud-filled eye. The
various satellite intensity estimates have decreased since the last
advisory, and the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly
generous 65 kt.

There is no change in the philosophy of the intensity forecast.
Orlene is forecast to be in an area of light vertical wind shear for
the next 3-4 days, after which the shear is forecast to increase
again.  Even with the favorable shear, the tropical cyclone is
forecast to be over marginally warm SSTs and move into a drier and
more stable air mass.  These environmental conditions are expected
to result in gradual weakening during the forecast period.  The new
NHC intensity forecast is again changed little since the previous
advisory and it lies on the low side of the intensity guidance in
best agreement with the SHIPS model.

Orlene is moving a little faster toward the west or 270/5.  A faster
motion toward the west and west-southwest is forecast during the
next 3-4 days as the subtropical ridge strengthens to the north of
the cyclone.  Late in the forecast period, a large mid- to
upper-level low expected to be well northeast of the Hawaiian
Islands should produce a break in the subtropical ridge, allowing
the cyclone to turn west-northwestward.  The forecast guidance had
shifted southward since the last advisory, especially after 48
hours.  Thus, the new forecast track is also shifted southward from
72-120 hours.  However, it still lies north of the center of the
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 20.2N 119.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 19.9N 120.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 19.8N 122.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 19.7N 124.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 19.5N 127.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 19.5N 132.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 19.5N 137.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 21.0N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven