000
WTPZ41 KNHC 122051
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016
200 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2016

Orlene continues to rapidly strengthen, with a remarkable 50 kt
increase in intensity during the past 24 hours.  Orlene's eye has
warmed considerably during the past several hours and has become
more distinct and symmetric in visible imagery.  Additionally,
surrounding inner core cloud tops have cooled to around -70C.  A
symmetric upper-level outflow pattern has developed, consistent with
the low vertical shear environment.  There still appears to be a
window of opportunity for some further strengthening during the next
12 hours or so, as indicated by most of the statistical-dynamical
intensity guidance.  Afterward, a weakening trend is expected to
commence as the Orlene moves into a more stable and drier
thermodynamic environment.  The official intensity forecast is
based on the IVCN model consensus and is close to the LGEM guidance
beyond the 48 hour period.

Orlene is moving more toward the north now, a little sooner than
model guidance previously indicated, and the initial motion is
estimated to be 350/5 kt.  This general motion is expected to
continue over  the next 24 hours within a weakness in a mid-level
ridge created by an amplifying trough over the western portion of
the United States.  By mid-period, high pressure is forecast to
back westward, to the north of the hurricane as the aforementioned
trough tracks northeastward.  As a result in this change in the
mid- to upper-level steering flow, Orlene should turn toward the
west with an acceleration in forward motion.  The new NHC forecast
track is adjusted a little to the right of the previous one and lies
near the TVCN multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 17.9N 119.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 18.5N 119.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 19.1N 119.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 19.5N 119.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 19.5N 120.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 19.1N 123.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 18.8N 128.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 18.7N 132.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts