000
WTPZ41 KNHC 082050
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
300 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016
 
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently investigated Javier
on a long mission from base.  They measured peak SFMR-observed
surface winds of 54 kt and maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 52
kt.  On the basis of these data, the intensity is set at 55 kt.
Some slight additional strengthening is possible tonight while the
center pass near or over the extreme southern Baja California
peninsula.  Later the period, cooler SSTs, interaction with land,
and an increasingly stable air mass should cause gradual weakening.
The official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model
consensus.
 
Center fixes from the aircraft give an initial motion estimate of
315/8.  Javier is expected to continue to move around the western
periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered near Texas.  The
official track forecast lies close to the dynamical model
consensus, TVCN.
 
Observations from the aircraft indicate that Javier is a small
tropical cyclone.  Although some slight expansion of the wind field
may occur over the next day or so, the radius of
tropical-storm-force winds is not expected to be much more than 60
n mi.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 22.5N 109.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 23.3N 110.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 24.3N 111.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 25.2N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 26.2N 113.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch