000
WTPZ41 KNHC 080300
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
900 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016

Although cloud tops have warmed some since the previous advisory,
the overall convective cloud pattern of the cyclone has improved and
passive microwave imagery indicate that the internal structure has
also improved. The intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on
consensus T3.0/45 kt satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB, and a
T3.2/49 kt objective estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT.

Microwave fixes indicate that the initial motion estimate is now
310/11 kt.  Javier is forecast to move along the southwestern
periphery of a deep-layer ridge centered near Texas, with the
cyclone passing very near the west coast of the Baja California
peninsula in 24-72 hours. The NHC model guidance is in good
agreement on this track scenario, and the official forecast track
closely follows the consensus model TVCN.

A 0121Z SSMI/S image indicated that Javier appears to be developing
a small mid-level eye feature. Given the compact inner-core
structure of the cyclone, along with low shear of 5-8 kt and SSTs
of at least 29C along the forecast track, at least steady
strengthening seems reasonable for the next 36 hours or so. The
official intensity forecast is slightly above the available guidance
and closely follows the trend of the Decay-SHIPS model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 20.6N 107.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 21.4N 108.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 22.2N 109.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 23.1N 110.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 24.5N 111.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 72H  11/0000Z 26.5N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  12/0000Z 28.9N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart