000
WTPZ41 KNHC 072046
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
300 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016

Javier has not become better organized during the day, and the
associated deep convection is ragged-looking and not very
extensive.  Based on the earlier surface wind report from
Manzanillo, the current intensity is held at 40 kt.  The storm is
experiencing some easterly shear, but gradual intensification while
Javier passes over the warm waters to the south of the Baja
California peninsula seems likely.  The official intensity forecast
again follows the SHIPS model guidance.

The cyclone accelerated somewhat today, and the initial motion
estimate is 300/12 kt.  Javier is moving along the southwestern
periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered near Texas.  In the
next couple of days, the system should gradually turn toward the
right as a trough near California weakens the ridge.  The GFS and
ECMWF global models have shifted to the left of their previous
forecasts, so the official forecast is also shifted in that
direction.  The official forecast track lies between the GFS/ECMWF
solutions and the latest HWRF model run.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 19.5N 106.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 20.4N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 21.4N 109.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 22.2N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 23.2N 111.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 25.6N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch