000
WTPZ41 KNHC 070854
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016

The low pressure area near the southwestern coast of Mexico has
become better defined overnight, and there is sufficient convective
organization to classify the system as a tropical depression.
Although the convection near the center has recently decreased,
there are several curved bands around the outer portion of the
circulation.  Recent land-based observations indicate that brisk
southeasterly winds are occurring along the immediate coast of
Mexico, and ship H9LA reported a minimum pressure of 1004.9 mb and
31 kt southerly winds early in the evening.  Based on these data,
the initial wind speed is estimated to be 30 kt.

The forecast track of the depression takes it over very warm water
during the next couple of days, but moderate easterly shear and
interaction with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico
should mean only slight strengthening today.  Additional modest
intensification is expected tonight and Monday, before the system
nears the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in
about 48 hours.  After that time, interaction with land and a more
stable airmass should cause weakening, and the cyclone is forecast
to dissipate near or over the central Baja California peninsula in
4 to 5 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement
with the SHIPS guidance, which is a little above the dynamical
models.

Since the tropical cyclone is still in its formative stage, the
initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 290/9 kt.  The
depression is forecast to turn northwesterly by late Sunday as it
moves around the southwestern portion of a strong mid-level ridge
centered over the south-central United States.  In 3 to 4 days, a
deepening mid-level trough off the west coast of the United States
should cause the cyclone to turn north-northwestward or northward.
The track guidance is in good agreement and the NHC forecast lies
near the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 18.0N 104.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 19.0N 105.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 20.3N 107.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 21.3N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 22.4N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 24.6N 112.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 27.0N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
120H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown