000
WTPZ41 KNHC 211433
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
800 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

Estelle continues to feature a small area of deep convection mainly
to the northwest of the estimated low-level center location.  The
initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of the latest
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Weakening is forecast since
Estelle will be moving over cooler SSTs and the shear is expected
to increase.  These factors should result in Estelle losing
organized deep convection and becoming post-tropical in 24 to 36
hours.  The remnant low of Estelle should dissipate in 4 or 5 days.

The initial motion estimate is 285/13, as Estelle is being steered
by a mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south-
central United States.  Estelle should continue moving around the
periphery of the ridge and turn northwestward by 48 hours, and this
northwestward motion should continue through dissipation.  The new
NHC track forecast is a little left of the previous one through 48
hours and is near the latest TVCN consensus.  A larger westward
adjustment was made at days 3 and 4, trending toward a leftward
shift in the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 20.1N 128.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 20.8N 130.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 21.9N 132.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 23.3N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1200Z 24.8N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/1200Z 27.5N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1200Z 30.0N 146.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan