000
WTPZ41 KNHC 210836
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
200 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016

The amount of convection has continued to decrease and is now
concentrated within a small area near the low-level center. Dvorak
T-numbers have not changed much, and a recent ASCAT pass over the
cyclone shows a few vectors of 50 kt. These winds are confined to
the northern semicircle and not far from the center. Initial
intensity was then set at 50 kt.  Estelle is forecast to weaken
gradually as it moves over cooler waters during the next few days,
and most likely the cyclone becomes post-tropical in about 36 hours
or sooner. Dissipation is expected in 4 or 5 days.

Estelle is being steered west-northwest at about 13 kt by a strong
subtropical ridge, and it is expected to turn northwestward in a
couple of days when it reaches the western periphery of the ridge.
There have been no significant changes to the guidance, and the new
NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and remains
near the model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 19.8N 126.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/1800Z 20.4N 128.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/0600Z 21.5N 131.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  22/1800Z 22.8N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/0600Z 24.4N 136.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/0600Z 27.5N 140.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/0600Z 30.5N 144.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila