000 WTPZ41 KNHC 210234 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2016 Satellite images show that Estelle continues to display a small central dense overcast, and microwave data indicate the center is on the southern side of the cloud mass. Satellite classifications are a bit lower than earlier, and the initial wind speed is set to 55 kt. A combination of cooler waters, dry and stable air, and increasing shear should cause Estelle to gradually weaken over the next few days. Estelle is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 36 hours when it moves over SSTs around 22 deg C. The NHC intensity forecast is basically just an update of the previous forecast, lying close to the model consensus. Estelle is moving westward at about 12 kt, and is being steered by a strong subtropical ridge. The storm is expected to turn west- northwestward tomorrow and then northwestward in a couple of days when it reaches the western periphery of the ridge. A continued northwestward motion is expected until the post-tropical cyclone dissipates in 4 to 5 days. There have been no significant changes to the guidance, and the new NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 19.5N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 19.9N 127.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 20.8N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 22.0N 132.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 23/0000Z 23.5N 135.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/0000Z 26.9N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z 30.5N 142.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake