000
WTPZ41 KNHC 192036
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016

Estelle has changed little in organization since this morning.  The
tropical storm still has several broken bands of convection around
the circulation but microwave data indicate that there has been no
improvement in the inner-core structure.  Dvorak T-numbers from
TAFB and SAB have decreased to T3.5, and the initial intensity is
set to 55 kt for this advisory.  Estelle's intensity forecasts have
not been golden since the tropical cyclone has refused to strengthen
during the past couple of days.  There still appears to be a short
window in which Estelle could strengthen, but given the lack of
inner-core structure, it appears unlikely that significant
intensification will occur.  As a result, the NHC forecast now shows
little change in wind speed tonight.  Weakening should begin on
Thursday and continue during the remainder of the period as Estelle
moves over cooler water and into a more stable airmass.  The
tropical cyclone is expected to lose convection and become a remnant
low within 72 hours.

There has been no significant change to the track forecast or
reasoning.  Estelle continues moving west-northwestward to the
south of the strong subtropical ridge that has steered all of the
July eastern Pacific tropical cyclone westward to west-
northwestward.  The western portion of the ridge is finally forecast
to weaken in about 72 hours, which should cause Estelle or its
remnant low to turn northwestward by day 4.  The track guidance is
very tightly clustered and the NHC track is near an average of the
GFS/ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 19.0N 119.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 19.3N 121.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 19.7N 123.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 20.1N 126.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 21.1N 129.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 23.7N 134.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1800Z 27.5N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1800Z 31.0N 141.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown