000
WTPZ41 KNHC 182036
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016

Banding features associated with Estelle have become a little
better defined this afternoon, but the tropical storm still lacks
an inner core.  In fact, this afternoon's ASCAT data continues to
show a large radius of maximum winds.  Satellite classifications
from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMSS have not changed much during the past
24 hours, so the initial wind speed will remain 60 kt for this
advisory.

Estelle's refusal to intensify has likely been the result
of shear and intrusions of dry mid-level air.  Since the shear
appears to have decreased and the tropical storm is predicted to
remain over warm water for another 36-48 h, one would think that
Estelle should be able to strengthen and finally attain hurricane
status.  However, this will likely be dependent on the cyclone
consolidating inner-core convection, which is nearly impossible to
forecast. It may sound like a broken record, but the NHC forecast
once again calls for Estelle to become a hurricane during the next
12 to 24 hours.  After 36 h, gradually decreasing SSTs and a less
favorable thermodynamic environment should cause weakening. A faster
rate of reduction in wind speed should occur later in the forecast
period when the cyclone moves over SSTs below 24C, and Estelle is
predicted to become post-tropical on day 4.

Recent fixes indicate that Estelle continues to move west-
northwestward.  The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged from
the previous advisory.  Estelle should continue west-northwestward
for the next several days, then turn northwestward late in the
forecast period, into a weakness in the subtropical ridge.  The
track guidance continues to be tightly clustered and the NHC
forecast lies between the typically better performing global
models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 17.8N 115.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 18.3N 117.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 18.8N 119.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 19.2N 121.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 19.7N 123.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  21/1800Z 21.2N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  22/1800Z 24.0N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/1800Z 28.0N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown