000 WTPZ41 KNHC 170241 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 900 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016 There has not been much change to Estelle's satellite presentation during the past several hours, with strong convection continuing near the center along with a large curved band in the southern and western semicircles. Microwave data show the center is on the northwestern edge of the deep convection: a sign that there is still some shear affecting the cyclone. Satellite intensity estimates are basically unchanged since 6 hours ago, so the initial wind speed will remain 45 kt. Weak-to-moderate northwesterly shear is forecast to continue for the next couple of days while the cyclone moves over warm waters. Strengthening seems likely then since the shear isn't prohibitive, and all guidance indicates this upward trend. Estelle should begin to encounter marginally warm waters after day 3, which is likely to initiate weakening. The latest forecast is very close to the previous one, above the model consensus (which has had a low bias this season) but close to the Florida State Super Ensemble solution. Microwave data has been helpful this evening with the initial position and motion, with Estelle continuing to move west- northwestward. This general motion is expected for the next several days while the storm remains beneath a rather persistent ridge over the eastern Pacific. Overall the model guidance is showing a slightly stronger ridge in the longer term than the last model cycle, and the official forecast is nudged more westward near the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 16.1N 110.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 16.4N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 16.9N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 17.5N 114.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 17.9N 116.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 18.4N 120.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 19.0N 124.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 20.3N 129.8W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake