000
WTPZ41 KNHC 161446
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
900 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016

Convective banding associated with Estelle continues to increase
and become better organized, with a large band wrapping around the
southwestern portion of the circulation, and broken bands of
convection to the east and southeast of the center. Recent microwave
and early-light visible satellite pictures indicate that the center
of the tropical cyclone is located northeast of the earlier
estimates, which required some relocation of Estelle for this
advisory.  With the increase in organization, Dvorak T-numbers have
responded accordingly, and support raising the initial intensity to
45 kt.

Estelle is forecast to remain in a moist and low wind shear
environment during the next several days.  These conditions, along
with warm water along the forecast track, should allow for
strengthening, and Estelle is forecast to become a hurricane in a
day or so.  After that time, the track forecast takes the cyclone
just north of the cold wake left behind by previous hurricanes, and
continued intensification is likely.  After 72 hours, the tropical
cyclone is forecast to move over cooler waters which should induce
gradual weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the
various intensity models, and shows a peak intensity slightly
higher than the SHIPS/LGEM guidance.

Due to the relocation of the center, the initial motion estimate is
a somewhat uncertain 290/7 kt, which is slightly slower than before.
Estelle is expected to continue moving west-northwestward during
the next few days to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends
westward from northern Mexico.  After that time, there is
increasing spread in the guidance due to differences in the strength
of the ridge.  The GFS depicts a weaker ridge after 72 hours due to
a developing trough off the west coast of the United States and
takes the tropical cyclone west-northwestward to northwestward near
the end of the forecast period.  The ECMWF is on the southern side
of the guidance envelope as it maintains more ridging and takes
Estelle more westward.  The updated NHC track lies between these
solutions and is close to the Florida State Superensemble.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 15.7N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 16.0N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 16.4N 111.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 16.8N 112.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z 17.2N 114.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 18.1N 117.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 18.5N 121.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 19.5N 126.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown