000
WTPZ41 KNHC 072032
TCDEP1
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012016
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016
 
Numerous very cold cloud tops from the tropical cyclone's deep
convection are observed over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and
southeastern Mexico, just north of the suspected center.  No in-situ
observations of the system's peak winds have been available, so an
18Z Dvorak current intensity number of 2.0 from TAFB is the basis
for maintaining the initial intensity of 30 kt.
 
It again has been challenging to locate the center of the tropical
depression.  The visible satellite imagery was suggestive of a tight
low-level center a couple of hours ago, before moving underneath the
southern edge of the convective overcast.  Also a 1610Z ASCAT-B
scatterometer pass in the eastern semicircle of the tropical cyclone
was consistent with a closed surface circulation center being
located in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  The initial motion is an
uncertain 50/5 with the tropical cyclone being steered primarily by
the low to mid-level flow on the south side of a deep-layered trough
over central Mexico. The tropical depression should further slow its
forward motion and either dissipate over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or
just inland over southeastern Mexico.  The official track forecast
is near the TVCN ensemble mean and the previous advisory.
 
The tropical depression is being affected by moderate southerly
vertical shear.  This as well as proximity to the high terrain of
southern Mexico and advection of dry air into its circulation is
likely to prevent intensification into a tropical storm.  All
statistical and dynamical guidance show dissipation of the
tropical cyclone within about a day, regardless of whether it
remains over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or makes landfall.  The
official intensity forecast is nearly the same as that from the
previous advisory.
 
The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy
rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides over southern Mexico and western Guatemala, especially in
areas of high terrain.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 15.5N  94.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 15.7N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 16.0N  94.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Landsea