000
WTPZ41 KNHC 071457
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012016
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016

The tropical depression has substantial deep convection associated
with it this morning, primarily located within in its eastern
semicircle. A 12Z Dvorak current intensity number of 2.0 from
TAFB and a 28 kt observation from ship OZWA2 earlier this morning
are the basis for maintaining the initial intensity of 30 kt.

It is unclear, however, whether a well-defined surface center still
exists in association with the system.  First-light visible
satellite pictures and imagery from the Puerto Angel radar remain
ambiguous as to the structure of its circulation.  The initial
motion is a very uncertain 60/6 with the tropical cyclone being
steered primarily by the low to mid-level flow on the south side of
a deep-layered trough over central Mexico. The tropical depression
should slow its forward motion and either dissipate over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec or just inland over southeastern Mexico.  The official
track forecast is near the TVCN ensemble mean and somewhat north
from that of the previous advisory.

The tropical depression is being affected by moderate southerly
vertical shear this morning.  This as well as proximity to the
high terrain of southern Mexico and advection of dry air into
its circulation should likely prevent intensification into a
tropical storm.  All statistical and dynamical guidance show
dissipation within about a day, regardless if it remains over the
Gulf of Tehuantepec or makes landfall.  The official intensity
forecast is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory.

The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy
rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides over southern Mexico and western Guatemala, especially in
areas of high terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 15.3N  95.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 15.7N  94.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 16.0N  94.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea