000
WTPZ41 KNHC 220834
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015
100 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015

Rick is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone. Convective cloud
tops have warmed considerably since the previous advisory, and the
overall convective pattern has become disheveled looking with the
low-level circulation center now fully exposed more than 60 nmi to
the northwest of the closest convective cells. The initial intensity
has been decreased to 30 kt based on 25-kt to 30-kt satellite
intensity estimates, making Rick a tropical depression.

Rick has made the expected turn toward the west-northwest and is now
moving 290/10 kt. There is essentially no significant change to the
previous forecast track reasoning. The latest NHC model guidance
continues to show Rick turning northwestward and slowing down later
today, followed by a northward drift on Monday and Tuesday as the
cyclone continues to weaken, becoming more vertically shallow and
trapped in weak steering currents within a break in a low- to
mid-level ridge. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus of the GFS
and ECMWF model tracks.

Microwave satellite images indicate that dry and stable air has now
wrapped all the way around the cyclone and has penetrated into the
inner-core region, effectively cutting off convective development
there. The combination of even drier air and cooler sea-surface
temperatures, along with southwesterly vertical wind shear
increasing to more than 30 kt by late tonight or Monday morning, is
expected to produce further weakening for the rest of the forecast
period. Rick should become a remnant low by tonight or early Monday,
and dissipate by 96 h, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast
closely follows the the IVCN consensus intensity model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 17.3N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/0600Z 19.2N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/1800Z 20.3N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/0600Z 20.9N 120.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/0600Z 21.3N 120.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart