000 WTPZ41 KNHC 202036 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 200 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 The center of Rick is now exposed to the northwest of the remaining deep convection, and banding features have weakened during the past few hours. A partial ASCAT-B pass from 1650Z showed a few 30-35 kt wind vectors to the east of the center. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB, and this could be a little generous. Dry mid-level air continues to prevent Rick from intensifying, and much of the intensity guidance shows little change in strength during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, the shear is forecast to increase and Rick will begin moving over cooler SSTs, which should result in remnant low status in 2 to 3 days. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest intensity consensus. Rick has moved to the left of the previous forecast, and the initial motion estimate is a more confident 285/10 since the center is now exposed. With the more westerly initial position and motion and a weaker trend in the guidance, the track models have shown a large westward shift this cycle. Rick should continue moving generally west-northwestward for the next 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the northwest in 3 days as the ridge to the north weakens. The remnant of Rick is then forecast to move slowly northward or meander before dissipating in about 5 days. The new NHC track is about a degree to the left of the previous one, and is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF model forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 16.3N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 16.6N 112.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 16.9N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 17.5N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 18.4N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1800Z 20.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1800Z 21.5N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan