000
WTPZ41 KNHC 211437
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162015
900 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015

GOES-15 shortwave I/R and first visible images show that the
depression made landfall just to the northwest of Bahia Kino in the
Mexican state of Sonora.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt
based on the subjective intensity estimates and surface
observations along the coast of the Gulf of California.  Weakening
is forecast as the cyclone moves further inland, and the depression
is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area, or
possibly dissipate, later today.

The depression is moving north-northeastward and a little faster
now, about 16 kt, and this general motion should continue until
dissipation occurs.  The official forecast is a little faster than
the previous advisory and is nudged toward the multi-model consensus
TVCX.

The main hazard from the depression continues to be heavy rainfall
produced by the deep convection displaced well to the northeast
of the surface circulation.  The depression is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches across the northern Baja
California peninsula, the northwestern Mexican state of Sonora,
and Arizona and New Mexico.  Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches
are possible in Baja California and Sonora, Mexico.  Isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible in Arizona and New Mexico.
1 to 2 inches of rain is expected over portions of southern
California through Tuesday.  This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 29.2N 112.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  22/0000Z 31.7N 111.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  22/1200Z 34.6N 109.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts