000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170232
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 2015

The tropical depression is not very well organized.  Satellite
images indicate that the circulation is elongated from
north-northwest to south-southeast with multiple centers along the
trough axis.  The associated deep convection has been shrinking, and
only a small patch remains on the west side of the circulation.  The
initial intensity estimate remains 30 kt, in agreement with the
Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from UW-CIMSS.  The
depression is headed toward cooler water and an environment of
drier air and stronger shear.  These unfavorable conditions should
cause the system to degenerate to a remnant low on Monday and
likely dissipate in about four days, or possibly sooner.  The NHC
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and follows
the trend in the guidance.

The depression is situated between a mid- to upper-level low to its
southwest and a subtropical ridge over the southwestern United
States.  These features are expected to continue to steer the
depression, or its remnants, west-northwestward to northwestward
away from land until it dissipates.  The NHC track forecast has
been adjusted to the south of the previous one, mainly to account
for a more southerly initial position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 19.7N 119.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 21.2N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 23.3N 123.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1200Z 24.9N 126.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0000Z 26.0N 128.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0000Z 27.7N 132.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi