000
WTPZ41 KNHC 162035
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 2015

Convection associated with the depression has continued to become
fragmented and less organized. Multiple small swirls have been noted
in visible satellite imagery rotating around the mean center of the
larger cyclonic gyre, with two notable vorticity centers located
near 19.4N 115.8W and 18.4N 117.7W. The initial position is roughly
halfway between those two vortices. The initial intensity remains at
30 kt, which is consistent with available satellite intensity
estimates.

The initial motion estimate remains 305/15 kt. The NHC model
guidance remains in very good agreement on the depression
maintaining a northwestward motion for the next 72-96 hours, and the
NHC forecast track is, therefore, just an update of the previous
advisory and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.

The depression is expected to move over sub-26C SSTs after 12 hours
and into a drier and more stable airmass, which should result in
the system degenerating into a remnant low within the next 24
hours. Dissipation is forecast to occur by day 4, if not sooner. The
NHC intensity forecast is similar to the IVCN intensity model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 19.3N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 20.7N 119.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 22.6N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0600Z 24.3N 124.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z 25.7N 126.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1800Z 28.1N 130.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart