000
WTPZ41 KNHC 161437
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 16 2015

Tropical Depression 11-E remains poorly organized with an elongated
cloud pattern oriented from northwest to southeast, associated with
a decrease in convective intensity and coverage as well. Although
the depression barely meets the criteria for a tropical cyclone, a
blend of available satellite intensity estimates support maintaining
an intensity of 30 kt for this advisory,

Cirrus outflow has obscured the low-level center, so the initial
position and motion estimate of 305/15 kt are based on
extrapolation, continuity with the previous forecast, and two
recent SSMI and SSMI/S microwave passes that showed a ragged-looking
inner core. The depression is caught between converging
southeasterly streamflows associated with a deep-layer anticyclone
located over the southwestern United States and a mid-/upper-level
low located about 600 n mi west of the cyclone. The models are in
excellent agreement on this steering pattern remaining stable for
the next several days, which should keep the depression moving in a
northwestward direction until dissipation occurs by 96 hours. The
official forecast track is essentially just an update of the
previous advisory track, and lies roughly midway between the
consensus models TVCE and GFEX.

The deep-layer 850-200 mb wind shear is relatively low, but recent
UW-CIMSS shear analyses indicate that the depression is moving into
a region of 15-20 kt southeasterly mid-level shear. The latter
shear, in conjunction with much drier mid-level air, should cap any
further intensification, and induce weakening by 24 hours when the
cyclone moves over sub-26C SSTs. Transition into a remnant low in
now expected by 36-48 hours, with dissipation forecast to occur by
day 4, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
IVCN intensity model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 18.5N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 19.9N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z 21.8N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z 23.6N 122.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1200Z 25.3N 125.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z 27.6N 129.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart