000
WTPZ41 KNHC 160845
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015

The convective organization of Enrique continues to wane with
the remaining thunderstorm activity located well to the north
of the center.  A couple of recent partial ASCAT passes
showed winds to near 35-kt, so Enrique remains a tropical
storm for this advisory.  Gradual weakening is expected during the
next couple of days while the cyclone moves over cool water and
in an environment of moderate south-southwesterly shear.  Enrique
is forecast to become a remnant low within a day or so.

The initial motion estimate is 295/6. A slow west-northwestward
motion should continue for another 24 hours, before steering
currents weaken and the cyclone turns westward and slows down.
Most of the global models take the remnant low slowly
west-southwestward, then southward in a few days.  The latest NHC
track is close to the previous advisory and the GFS ensemble mean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0900Z 19.5N 134.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 19.9N 135.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 20.4N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 20.4N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0600Z 20.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/0600Z 19.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/0600Z 19.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown