000
WTPZ41 KNHC 140835
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015

Deep convection associated with Enrique has increased in coverage
overnight, however, the overall organization of the system has not
changed appreciably.  A recent ASCAT overpass was very helpful in
locating the center, and indicated that the maximum winds remain
near 35 kt.  Little change in intensity is forecast during the next
day or so. After that time, Enrique is expected to weaken while it
moves into an area of increasing southerly wind shear and over
cooler waters.  The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low in
about 72 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 300/8 kt. Enrique is expected to
continue on a west-northwestward heading during the next couple of
days to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge. In about 3 days, the
cyclone is forecast to decelerate as the low-level steering flow
weakens over the far eastern Pacific due to the approach of Dolores'
large circulation.  The updated NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous advisory, but shows the remnant low becoming nearly
stationary a bit east of the previous 4- and 5-day positions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 17.3N 129.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 17.7N 130.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 18.2N 131.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 18.8N 132.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 19.3N 134.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 20.3N 136.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  18/0600Z 20.3N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/0600Z 19.5N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown