000
WTPZ41 KNHC 131453
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
800 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2015

Enrique's convective structure consists of a large band that wraps
about halfway around the cyclone in its southern semicircle.  Unlike
the convectively uninhibited nature of Tropical Storm Dolores to its
east, the showers and thunderstorm activity of Enrique have warmer
cloud tops and the band is somewhat fragmented.  As the TAFB, SAB,
and ADT Dvorak classifications remain unchanged at 2.5, the
intensity for Enrique remains 35 kt.

It appears that Enrique will continue to be convectively challenged
as the atmosphere in which it is embedded has limited
thermodynamical instability, and the SSTs should drop below 26.5
deg C in less than two days.  Additionally, the vertical shear -
which is low now - is anticipated to increase to 10-15 kt out of the
south in about two days, as Enrique reaches the western periphery of
an upper-level high.  The combination of these effects should result
in gradual weakening of the cyclone after about two days and
the system becoming a remnant low in about five days.  The official
intensity forecast is closest to the GHMI dynamical model - the
model that anticipates the most development - but the NHC prediction
represents a modest reduction from the forecast issued previously.

Enrique is moving toward the north-northwest at about 9 kt,
primarily due to a deep-layer ridge to its north.  The dynamical
models have been unanimously in agreement that Enrique should have
already taken a west-northwestward turn, which the cyclone has
stubbornly resisted thus far.  Once such a turn does materialize,
Enrique should move toward the west-northwest at about the same
rate of speed for about three to four days.  After that time,
it is anticipated that Enrique's movement should decrease as the
steering flow weakens.  The official track forecast is north of the
consensus at 12 and 24 hours due to the continued right-of-track
movement currently occurring and then close to the TVCN multi-model
consensus thereafter.  This NHC prediction is consistently north of
that from the previous advisory because of the continued
unanticipated northerly movement of Enrique currently.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 15.9N 126.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 16.9N 127.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 17.6N 128.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 17.9N 130.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 18.3N 132.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 19.1N 135.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 20.0N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  18/1200Z 19.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea