000
WTPZ41 KNHC 122051
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015

The convective structure of the tropical cyclone has improved
somewhat today, with a band of deep convection wrapping around the
south and southwestern portions of the circulation.  Although Dvorak
data T-numbers have increased to T2.5 from both agencies, a recent
ASCAT pass suggests that the system is still below tropical storm
strength.  Environmental conditions consisting of warm water and low
vertical wind shear should allow for strengthening during the next
couple of days.  The primary inhibiting factor appears to be some
drier and more stable air to the north and northwest of the
cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and is in close agreement with the SHIPS guidance during
the first 48 hours.  After that time, increasing southerly shear,
cooler waters, and a more stable airmass are expected to cause
weakening.

Visible satellite images indicate that the initial position of
the cyclone is a little south of the previous estimate.  As a
result, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/6.  The
depression is expected to move on a general west-northwest to
northwest heading during the next several days while it remains to
the south of a narrow mid-level ridge.  Near the end of the forecast
period, the global models continue to show weakening of the steering
flow over the far eastern Pacific as the large circulation of
Dolores approaches from the east.  This is likely to cause
the cyclone's forward speed to decrease.  The track guidance remains
in agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is close to the
GFS ensemble mean, and just south of the model consensus.  The new
NHC track is a little south of the previous advisory due to the more
southward initial position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/2100Z 13.6N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 14.5N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  13/1800Z 15.3N 128.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/0600Z 15.9N 129.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  14/1800Z 16.4N 130.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  15/1800Z 17.0N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  16/1800Z 18.0N 135.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  17/1800Z 18.3N 136.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown