000
WTPZ41 KNHC 040843
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
200 AM PDT THU JUN 04 2015

The cloud pattern of Andres is deteriorating quickly this morning
with the center of circulation becoming exposed well to the west of
the dissipating deep convection.   The ambiguity solution of an
earlier 0222 UTC ISS-RapidScat pass showed a few believable 45 kt
winds to the northeast of the surface center.  Since that time,
however, the deep convection in that particular area has decreased
in coverage and the cloud tops have warmed considerably.  Therefore,
the initial intensity is decreased to 40 kt for this advisory, and
also agrees with a blend of the satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB.  Since Andres is forecast to remain over sub-24
degrees Celsius waters and within a harsh vertical shear
environment, the cyclone is expected to weaken and become a remnant
low in 24 hours or less.  The NHC intensity forecast, which is
similar to the IVCN consensus, calls for Andres to further weaken
and become a post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours, followed by
dissipation in 4 days.

Andres has barely moved during the past 6 hours, and appears
to be drifting northeastward with an initial motion of 045/2 kt.
The cyclone is forecast to turn gradually eastward later today and
then east-southeastward tonight within a weak low to mid-level
steering current.  For the remaining portion of the forecast, the
low is expected to gradually accelerate and move toward the
southeast within the peripheral flow of Hurricane Blanca situated
several hundred miles to its east.

The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent
ISS-RapidScat overpass, which showed a slightly larger extent of
tropical-storm-force winds over the northeast quadrant, and a
smaller area over the southern semi-circle.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 20.2N 124.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 20.2N 124.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 19.9N 124.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1800Z 19.5N 124.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0600Z 19.0N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0600Z 18.0N 122.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts