000
WTPZ41 KNHC 030246
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015

Andres continues to weaken this evening as it moves over sea
surface temperatures of 25C.  Although the vertical wind shear
is light, several recent microwave images suggest that the system is
no longer vertically stacked, with the mid-level center located
north of the low-level center.  The initial intensity is reduced to
70 kt as a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB, and this could be a little generous.

The initial motion is now estimated to be 305/7.  There is little
change to either the track forecast philosophy or the forecast
guidance since the previous advisory. A developing break in the
mid-level tropospheric ridge to the north of the cyclone should
induce Andres to turn northward and decelerate during the next 24
hours. After that time, the cyclone or its remnants are expected to
turn eastward and east-southeastward as Hurricane Blanca to the
southeast becomes the dominant steering influence.  The new forecast
track is an update of the previous forecast.

A combination of decreasing sea surface temperatures along the
forecast track, increasing vertical wind shear, and dry air
entrainment should cause Andres to quickly weaken.  The cyclone is
forecast to become a tropical storm in 12 hours or less, a tropical
depression in about 36 hours, and a remnant low in about 48 hours.
The remnant low is expected to dissipate by 120 hours as it gets
closer to Hurricane Blanca.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 18.6N 124.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 19.2N 124.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 19.8N 125.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 19.8N 124.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 19.8N 124.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 19.5N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0000Z 18.5N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven