000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010837 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 AM PDT MON JUN 01 2015 The satellite appearance of Andres has changed little overnight. The hurricane is exhibiting characteristics of an annular hurricane with a well-defined 25 to 30 n mi wide eye, a symmetric mass of deep convection, and a lack of outer banding features. A blend of the subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates support an initial intensity of 125 kt. The hurricane is moving westward or 275 degrees at 5 kt. Andres should turn west-northwestward, then northwestward during the next couple of days while a mid-level ridge builds over northwestern Mexico. By day 3, a deepening mid-latitude trough is expected to approach the longitude of the tropical cyclone. Andres should be much weaker by then, and will likely not respond as much to the mid-level southwesterly flow. Therefore, the NHC forecast shows a slow northward to northeastward motion at days 4 and 5. The updated track is close to the Florida State Superensemble and is near the middle of the model envelope. Given the expected low shear conditions and annular characteristics of Andres, the hurricane is likely to weaken a little less than the guidance indicates today. After that, Andres will be moving into a more stable environment and over cooler waters, which should result in a faster rate of weakening. By day 3, increasing southwesterly shear is likely to cause the circulation to decouple, and Andres is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low shortly thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 15.5N 119.8W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 16.1N 120.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 17.1N 122.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 18.1N 123.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 19.0N 125.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 20.2N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 20.8N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 21.0N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown