000
WTPZ41 KNHC 010233
TCDEP1

HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015
800 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015

The rather unexpected intensification noted earlier today has
continued into this evening.  Andres has a classic presentation on
satellite images, with a well-defined 15 n mi diameter eye embedded
within a symmetric mass of very deep convection.  The current
intensity estimate is set at 120 kt, which is a blend of the latest
subjective and objective Dvorak analyses.

Andres continues to move slowly westward, or 270/5 kt, in a weak
steering current.  Within 36 hours, the global models show a
mid-tropospheric anticyclone building in the vicinity of the Baja
California peninsula.  This should cause Andres to turn toward the
west-northwest and northwest at a slightly faster forward speed.
After 72 hours, a mid-tropospheric trough is predicted to dig near
the longitude of the cyclone.  Andres should be rapidly weakening by
that time, however, and will likely not respond much to the flow at
that level.  Therefore the official track forecast shows only a
northeastward drift at 96-120 hours.  This is similar to the
previous forecast and leans toward the ECMWF model track

Even though Andres has intensified significantly today, the
numerical intensity guidance insists on a weakening trend beginning
soon.  The hurricane is likely to encounter a more stable and drier
environment in the next day or two, and sea surface temperatures
will be gradually cooling.  The official intensity forecast is
close to the model consensus through 72 hours, and below it
afterwards since the cyclone is likely to be reduced to a remnant
low over quite cool waters by that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/0300Z 15.3N 119.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 15.8N 120.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 16.7N 121.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 17.7N 123.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 18.7N 124.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 20.0N 126.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/0000Z 21.0N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch