000 WTPZ41 KNHC 310836 TCDEP1 HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015 200 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015 Andres appears to have peaked in intensity during the early evening hours. Since that time, the eye has become obscured in infrared satellite imagery and the cloud pattern has become somewhat less symmetric. Dvorak data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB have decreased, and based on recent satellite trends the initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt. The initial motion estimate is northwest or 305 degrees at 6 kt. Andres is forecast to turn west-northwestward today as a mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane strengthens. A west- northwestward motion should then continue during the next couple of days. By 72 hours, a deepening mid-latitude trough is forecast to approach the west coast of the United States. The dynamical models that maintain a stronger tropical cyclone, turn Andres northward and northeastward ahead of the trough. The GFDL and ECMWF which depict a weaker Andres, show a continued west-northwestward track in the low- to mid-level easterly flow. The NHC forecast continues to lean toward the latter solution, but shows a slower forward motion at days 4 and 5 than the previous advisory. Although moderate west-northwesterly shear that is currently over Andres is forecast to decrease during the next 24 hours, the hurricane will be moving over cool water which should cause a gradual reduction in intensity. A faster rate of weakening is expected to begin in 36 to 48 hours after the cyclone moves over waters less than 26C and into a drier and more stable environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 15.4N 117.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 15.8N 118.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 16.3N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 16.8N 120.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 17.5N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 19.0N 125.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 19.5N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 19.5N 128.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown