000
WTPZ41 KNHC 050840
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
100 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014

The end is near for Vance, as the vertical shear over the area is
now over 50 kt.  With the rapid spindown of the circulation, the
maximum winds are now estimated to be about 30 kt, making the
cyclone a tropical depression.  Accordingly, the government of
Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm watch for their country.
Vance has been devoid of deep convection anywhere near its center
for about 6 hours, and it will likely become a remnant low after
moving inland later today.  Complete dissipation of the
surface circulation is expected within 24 hours or less.

Microwave and shortwave infrared imagery indicate that the
cyclone center is located a little to the southeast of the
previously estimated track.  After some retrospective adjustments to
the working best track, the initial motion is estimated to be about
050/11 kt.  This northeastward movement should continue until
dissipation.

Although the tropical cyclone will dissipate soon, moisture from
Vance or its remnants should continue to spread northeastward
across Mexico and into the south-central United States.  This is
producing heavy rains over portions of these areas which should
continue through Thursday or Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 21.9N 106.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1800Z 23.0N 105.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch