000
WTPZ41 KNHC 030836
TCDEP1

HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
100 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014

Satellite images indicate that Vance is maintaining its intensity,
with very cold-topped inner core convection.  Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain at 90 kt, and the initial
intensity is held at that value as well.  Vance's upper-level
outflow is becoming slightly impeded over its southwest quadrant,
suggesting that southwesterly shear over the hurricane is already
beginning to increase.  The window of opportunity for additional
strengthening is quickly closing, since the SHIPS model indicates
the vertical shear increasing to 24 kt in 12 hours and to 30 kt in
24 hours.  The NHC forecast shows only a slight increase in
strength today, with a weakening trend beginning in 12-24 hours,
and is near or slightly above the intensity model consensus.
Although the track forecast brings the cyclone near the coast by
72 hours, the upper-level environment is expected to be extremely
hostile and the system should be reduced to remnant low or even
completely dissipate by that time.

There has been a little deceleration and the motion is now 320/12
kt.  Over the next day or two, Vance should recurve around the
western periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge.  The cyclone is
then likely to move north-northeastward between the ridge and a
trough over extreme northwestern Mexico.  By the end of the
forecast period, the motion could become erratic since the
circulation will probably become quite shallow and be steered by
the weaker low-level flow.  The official track forecast is very
similar to the previous one and is close to the dynamical model
consensus.

Some additional adjustments to the wind radii were done based on
ASCAT data.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 14.5N 110.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 17.9N 110.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 19.6N 109.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 21.4N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 23.2N 107.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch