000
WTPZ41 KNHC 140849
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A 0246 UTC GMI overpass shows that the circulation of Sixteen-E may
finally be losing definition.  However, a burst of deep convection
has persisted on the western side of the circulation since that time
and Dvorak estimates have actually increased to 30-35 kt. Since the
overall shear cloud pattern has not changed substantially since the
previous advisory, the intensity has been held at 30 kt for now.

Although regular convective bursts have helped to maintain a
circulation, this is not expected to continue for long.  The
dynamical guidance continues to show that the depression will
quickly open up into a surface trough as a result of strong vertical
wind shear associated with the low-level inflow and upper-level
outflow of Hurricane Odile.  It is worth noting that 24 hours ago,
many of those same models had forecast that Sixteen would have
already opened into a remnant trough by now.  Given the hostile
environment, the NHC forecast still shows weakening into a remnant
low within 24 hours and complete dissipation by 36 hours.

The depression is accelerating around the circulation of Hurricane
Odile and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 080/10.  There
is decent agreement among the models that the depression, or its
remnants, will continue to rotate around Hurricane Odile during the
next day or so.  The official forecast is very close to the
consensus of the ECMWF and GFS models for the 24 hours before
dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 14.9N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 15.5N 113.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 17.1N 111.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown