000
WTPZ41 KNHC 120845
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014

A 0538 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicates that the center of the depression
is still located on the northeastern edge of the remaining deep
convection, consistent with northeasterly shear of around 10 kt
analyzed over the cyclone by the SHIPS model. The initial intensity
remains 30 kt based on data from the ASCAT pass and the latest
TAFB Dvorak estimate. Easterly vertical shear is expected to
gradually increase today, which should prevent any intensification.
Thee official forecast continues to show the depression weakening to
a remnant low in a couple of days and dissipating as it is absorbed
into the circulation of Tropical Storm Odile by 72 hours. However,
both of these could occur sooner than indicated.

The depression has been drifting northward during the past few
hours. The track guidance shows an eastward to east-southeastward
motion developing during the next day or so as the depression comes
under the influence of Odile's circulation. Given the recent lack of
motion and a trend toward a slower forward speed in much of the
track guidance this cycle, the new NHC track forecast is slower than
the previous one through dissipation. This forecast is close to a
blend of the GFS and the GEFS ensemble mean and is on the fast side
of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 16.6N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 16.7N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 16.4N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 15.9N 116.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 15.3N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan