000
WTPZ41 KNHC 112040
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014
200 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014

Satellite imagery suggests that the depression has become somewhat
less organized since this morning.  Cloud top temperatures have
generally warmed, and the depression's center is nearly exposed
on the northern edge of the main convective mass.  Low-cloud motions
also indicate that depression's circulation remains rather
elongated. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with
the 1800 UTC satellite classification from TAFB.

The depression should struggle to survive during the next few days.
Moderate northeasterly shear should persist over the cyclone in the
short term, making any significant intensification unlikely. In
about a day or so, the depression should become embedded in an
environment of low- to mid-level westerly flow and easterlies aloft,
which should induce a stronger easterly shear.  The forecast shear
could be enough to cause the cyclone to shear apart, and remnant
low status is now indicated in 48 hours. The NHC wind speed forecast
is slightly lower than the previous one and no longer shows the
depression reaching tropical storm strength, in accordance with the
latest multi-model consensus IVCN.

Based on the latest fixes, the center of the depression was
relocated a little farther west than in previous advisory. The
depression is moving north-northwestward, or 335/07, around the
northwestern side of a weak mid-level ridge.  As the cyclone moves
into a col region during the next 12 to 24 hours, the track should
bend northward and northeastward while the forward speed decreases
considerably. Global models then show the depression accelerating
on a general eastward course toward the large and intensifying
circulation of Odile. The same guidance shows the depression either
being absorbed by Odile or succumbing to prohibitively high wind
shear and losing its identity in 2-3 days.  The track forecast is
similar to but just a tad to the right of the previous one, close
to the multi-model consensus TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 16.3N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 16.8N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 17.0N 119.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 16.8N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 16.0N 116.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain