000
WTPZ41 KNHC 111534
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014
830 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014

First-light visible satellite imagery and microwave data suggest
that the small area of low pressure located well southwest of the
Baja California peninsula has become better organized.  Satellite
classifications from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T2.0/30 kt, and
thus the system is being upgraded to Tropical Depression Sixteen-E
at this time.

The best guess on the initial motion is 340/11.  The depression is
forecast to continue north-northwestward or northward with a
significant decrease in forward speed during the next 24 hours as
it moves along the western periphery of a weak mid-level ridge.
After that time, the cyclone should turn generally eastward with an
increase in forward speed while it gradually becomes assimilated
into the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Odile to the east.  A
motion south of east is even possible prior to dissipation.  The NHC
forecast track is on the left side of the guidance envelope but not
too far from the multi-model consensus TVCN.

While the depression could strengthen a little and become a
tropical storm in the short term, opposing low- and upper-level
flow should create a hostile shearing environment beyond 24 hours
or so.  Global models show the depression losing its identity in
2-3 days, but the official forecast will assume that the system
remains a coherent feature through at least day 3.  The NHC
intensity forecast is slightly above the multi-model consensus out
to 24 hours and near it beyond that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/1530Z 16.1N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  12/0000Z 16.7N 119.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  12/1200Z 17.3N 118.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  13/0000Z 17.1N 117.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  13/1200Z 16.3N 116.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  14/1200Z 14.5N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain