000
WTPZ41 KNHC 240837
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Karina has the classic appearance of a sheared tropical cyclone,
with a strong IR brightness temperature gradient on the east side
of the storm.  Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and
UW-CIMSS have continued to decrease and the initial intensity has
subsequently been lowered to 60 kt.  Karina is turning toward the
east and the initial motion is estimated to be 65/6, though the
motion is a little more uncertain for this forecast since the
low-level center has become obscured.  A general eastward motion is
still expected for the next 36 to 48 hours hours. After that, the
dynamical models have finally come into complete agreement that
Karina will turn more toward the south once it begins to interact
with, and circumnavigate, the large circulation of Hurricane Marie.
Shortly after this interaction begins, Karina will be assimilated or
completely strained out by the larger vortex. The official forecast
has been shifted south, but still shows fairly slow movement at days
3 and 4 since the model spread remains large.

Given the decreasing SSTs and increasing vertical wind shear that
dominate the environment around Karina, continued weakening appears
to be inevitable.  The intensity guidance is in good agreement that
Karina will become a remnant low within the next 72 hours.  No major
changes were made to the intensity forecast, which remains near the
intensity consensus, IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 17.9N 132.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 18.0N 129.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 18.0N 128.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 17.9N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown