000
WTPZ41 KNHC 191432
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014

The cloud pattern associated with Karina has changed very little
during the past few hours. There is a well-defined convective
band wrapping around the center, but there is some dry air
entraining into the cyclone. The convection is not very deep, and
Dvorak T-numbers are on a weakening trend supporting an initial
intensity of 45 knots.  The outflow of large Tropical Storm Lowell
located to the east will likely induce some moderate shear over
Karina, but should not be strong enough to weaken the cyclone
significantly. Karina most likely will experience some fluctuations
in intensity during the next 2 to 3 days.  After that time, as
Karina gradually becomes pulled northeastward by the flow around
Lowell, it will encounter cooler waters and the cyclone will likely
begin to weaken.

Karina is already slowing down and is moving westward at 4 knots.
An additional decrease in forward speed is anticipated as the
steering currents collapse further, and Karina is expected to drift
westward or even meander for the next 2 to 3 days.  Then, as
Lowell passes to the north, the cyclone should turn northeastward
with increased forward speed around the southwesterly flow
associated with the large circulation of Lowell. The NHC forecast is
very close to the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF models, which
has been performing quite well with Karina so far. It is also
similar to the previous NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 15.7N 134.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  20/0000Z 15.7N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  20/1200Z 15.8N 135.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  21/0000Z 16.0N 136.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  21/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  22/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  23/1200Z 17.7N 132.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 21.0N 129.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila