000
WTPZ41 KNHC 181441
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

The cloud pattern associated with Karina has not changed much during
the past 2 or 3 days, and still consists of an area of deep
convection with the center on the northern edge due to shear. This
was confirmed by an AMSU pass earlier today. Given that the cloud
pattern has not changed, the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt.
Karina has the chance to slightly strengthen since the circulation
is moving over warmer waters and into weaker shear. By the end of
the forecast period, the outflow from larger Tropical Depression
12-E to the northeast should induce stronger shear and prevent
additional strengthening.

Best estimate of the initial motion is 255 degrees at 8 kt. Karina
is trapped south of a strong subtropical ridge, and this pattern
will keep the cyclone moving slowly south of due west or to the west
for the next 2 to 3 days. The confidence in this portion of the
forecast is high with good guidance agreement. After that time,
Karina's motion will be dominated by the larger-than- normal TD
12-E, which is forecast to pass to the northeast. This should result
in a collapse of the steering flow near Karina and very little
motion of the cyclone. By the end of the period Karina should begin
to turn slowly to the northeast steered by the southwesterly flow on
the south side of TD 12-E. This later portion of the forecast is
much less certain due to the large guidance spread. On the other
hand, all dynamical models agree on the turn to the northeast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 16.8N 132.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 16.5N 133.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 16.3N 135.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 16.3N 136.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  22/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 17.5N 135.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila