000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180850
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014

Deep convection associated with Karina has been pulsing during the
last several hours and it remains displaced to the southwest of the
low-level center due to persistent shear.  The initial intensity
remains 40 kt, but this could be a little generous based on the
latest Dvorak classifications.  The shear is expected to slacken
some during the next day or two, which could allow the storm to
restrengthen a little.  However, significant strengthening seems
unlikely since Karina could be affected by some dry air to its west
while it remains over marginal sea surface temperatures.  The NHC
intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and near the
consensus model IVCN.

Karina is moving west-southwestward at about 10 kt, and this
general motion with a decrease in forward speed is predicted
during the next 24 hours.  The storm is likely to drift westward or
become stationary by the middle to late portion of the week when the
steering currents collapse.  By the end of the forecast period, the
cyclone is expected to get pulled northeastward when it begins to
interact with the large depression to its east.  The new official
track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 17.1N 131.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  18/1800Z 16.7N 132.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  19/0600Z 16.4N 133.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  19/1800Z 16.3N 134.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  20/0600Z 16.3N 135.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  21/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  22/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  23/0600Z 17.6N 135.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi