000
WTPZ41 KNHC 170233
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014

The low-level center of Karina was exposed to the east of the deep
convection in the last-light visible images, consistent with the
nearly 15 kt of shear analyzed by UW-CIMSS. Overall, the cloud
pattern remains relatively unimpressive, with little banding and a
general decrease in the cold convective tops during the past few
hours. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the latest
Dvorak estimate from SAB. Little change in intensity is expected
during the next 24 hours, but some re-strengthening is forecast
after that time as SSTs along the forecast track begin to increase a
little. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one
and is near or a bit above the IVCN intensity consensus.

The latest satellite fixes yield an initial motion estimate of
260/10. Karina will continue moving westward to west-southwestward
for the next couple of days as the cyclone is steered by a
subtropical ridge to the north. After that time, the steering
currents weaken as the ridge erodes and the global models show other
tropical cyclones possibly forming east and west of Karina. Little
net motion is expected after 48 hours, and confidence in the details
of the track forecast beyond that time is lower than normal. The new
NHC track forecast is close to the previous one, but a little faster
in the first 36 to 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 17.8N 126.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 17.5N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 17.1N 129.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 16.6N 130.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 16.0N 132.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 16.0N 132.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  21/0000Z 16.0N 133.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  22/0000Z 16.0N 133.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan