000
WTPZ41 KNHC 162038
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014

The cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate today, with the
low-level center now removed from the deep convection due to
moderate easterly shear. T-numbers have decreased to T2.0 and T2.5
on the Dvorak scale, and a recent partial ASCAT pass shows maximum
winds of 35 knots. On this basis, the intensity has been set at 35
knots. Although Karina has weakened, it most likely will begin to
re-strengthen in about 24 hours when the circulation moves over
warmer waters and into weaker shear. In fact, the HWRF insists on
bringing Karina back to hurricane status in 3 days. The NHC forecast
is not that aggressive and brings the winds only to 50 knots in
agreement with the intensity consensus.

Microwave and conventional fixes indicate that the center has been
moving just south of due west or 260 degrees at 10 knots. The ridge
to the north of Karina is expected to amplify a little more forcing
the cyclone to move on a west-southwest track for the next 2 to 3
days. After that time, the steering currents are expected to
collapse due to the development of several disturbances nearby, and
that pattern will keep the cyclone meandering for the remainder
of the forecast period. Most of the dynamical track guidance
forecast a sharp but slow turn to the right before Karina arrives at
132 degrees longitude. Given the weak steering flow, the NHC
forecast shows little movement between 3 and 5 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 17.9N 125.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 17.7N 126.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 17.5N 128.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 17.0N 129.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 16.5N 131.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 15.5N 132.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 15.5N 132.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila