000 WTPZ41 KNHC 152032 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2014 The cloud pattern associated with Karina has been gradually deteriorating during the day. Microwave data reveal that the center continues to be located to the north of a small area of deep convection. The upper-level outflow is very limited due to northeasterly shear. Consequently, the Dvorak T-numbers have continued to decrease, supporting a generous initial intensity of 45 knots. It appears that Karina will continue within an environment unfavorable for strengthening, but not hostile enough to weaken the cyclone either. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity during the next 5 days, although there is a small possibility of slight strengthening beyond 4 days, when the cyclone reaches warmer waters. In fact, this is the solution of the HWRF model. The best estimate of the initial motion is 280 degrees at 10 knots. Karina continues to be steered by the flow around a persistent subtropical ridge. Most of the global models build the ridge westward beyond 3 days, and this pattern should force Karina to move on a more west to west-southwest track with a decrease in forward speed. By day 5, Karina will probably begin to meander within a very weak steering flow. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the trend of the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 17.6N 121.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 18.0N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 18.3N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 18.3N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 18.1N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 17.0N 134.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 17.0N 135.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila