000
WTPZ41 KNHC 082045
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062014
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014

The cloud pattern of Fausto has changed little during the past
several hours, with the low-level center located near the northern
edge of the main convective mass.  A recent ASCAT overpass shows
that the circulation is poorly defined on the western side, and
there are no tropical-storm-force winds except in the southeastern
quadrant. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt
since the ASCAT did not fully sample the southeastern quadrant.

The initial motion is now 280/13.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of Fausto should continue to result in a generally
west-northwestward track for the next day or two.   By days 2-4, a
weakness in the ridge in the vicinity of 140-145 degrees west
longitude should cause some deceleration and a slight turn to the
right.  By the end of the forecast period, it is expected that a
weakening Fausto will be turning more westward in the lower-level
trade wind flow.  The new track forecast is just a little to the
left of and slightly faster than the previous forecast, and it lies
in the middle of the track guidance envelope.

Fausto should be over warm sea surface temperatures and in an area
of light vertical wind shear for about 48 hours.  While these
conditions are favorable, microwave satellite data and water vapor
imagery show significant dry air near the cyclone.  This, combined
with the current structure, suggests that strengthening should be
slow at best.  After 48 hours, increasing northwesterly shear and
decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should
cause Fausto to weaken.  The new intensity forecast calls for a
slower strengthening and a quicker weakening than the previous
forecast, which is in best agreement with the intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 10.0N 124.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 10.5N 126.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 11.4N 129.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 12.2N 132.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 13.3N 135.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 15.0N 140.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 16.5N 144.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 17.0N 148.0W   25 KT  30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven