000 WTPZ41 KNHC 152038 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162013 200 PM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013 PRISCILLA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH EACH A LITTLE BIT SMALLER IN COVERAGE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING...SO THE CYCLONE IS BEING INITIALIZED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION. NOW THAT THE DEEP- LAYER SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS A LITTLE BIT LESS EXPOSED FROM THIS LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO HAMPER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COLDER WATER...AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS. PRISCILLA HAS MADE A HARD LEFT TURN AND IS NOW MOVING 300/7 KT. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER IT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT WESTWARD...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS LYING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...SO THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 17.7N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 18.1N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 18.7N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 19.2N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1800Z 19.4N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z 18.7N 123.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG